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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">upravlenie</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Государственное и муниципальное управление. Ученые записки</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>State and municipal management. Scholar notes</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2079-1690</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2687-0290</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Южно-Российский институт управления</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22394/2079-1690-2023-1-2-167-174</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">upravlenie-347</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ПРОБЛЕМЫ ЭКОНОМИКИ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>PROBLEMS OF ECONOMICS</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Выбор модели оценки и прогнозирования деятельности предприятий промышленного сектора экономики в условиях импортозамещения</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Choice of a model for assessing and forecasting the activities of enterprises in the industrial sector of the economy in conditions of import substitution</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Сериков</surname><given-names>В. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Serikov</surname><given-names>Vladimir V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Владимир Витальевич Сериков – генеральный директор,</p><p>Елец.</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Vladimir V. Serikov – General Director,</p><p>Yelets.</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">serikov2012@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru">АО «Энергия»<country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en">JSC «Energiya»<country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2023</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>24</day><month>11</month><year>2025</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>2</issue><fpage>167</fpage><lpage>174</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Сериков В.В., 2025</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2025</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Сериков В.В.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Serikov V.V.</copyright-holder><license license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://upravlenie-uriu.ranepa.ru/jour/article/view/347">https://upravlenie-uriu.ranepa.ru/jour/article/view/347</self-uri><abstract><p>В действующих условиях развития российской экономики переосмысления требуют вопросы планирования, прогнозирования и моделирования деятельности предприятий промышленного сектора, обеспечивающих суверенитет отечественной экономики. В связи с этим цель данной статьи заключается в исследовании и обосновании моделей, обеспечивающих учет факторов внутренней и внешней среды предприятия, динамику процессов модернизации и технологического развития. В статье обосновывается целесообразность применения когнитивного подхода к моделированию динамики развития предприятий в отраслях промышленного сектора экономики. Автором предлагается комплекс факторов для включения в когнитивную модель, обеспечивающих оценку внутреннего потенциала и учет динамики внешней среды.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>In the current conditions of the development of the Russian economy, rethinking requires planning, forecasting and modeling the activities of enterprises in the industrial sector that ensure  the sovereignty of the domestic economy. In this regard, the purpose of this article is to study and justify models that take into account the factors of the internal and external environment of the enterprise,  the dynamics of modernization processes and technological development. The article substantiates  the expediency of applying the cognitive approach to modeling the dynamics of the development of enterprises in the industries of the industrial sector of the economy. The author proposes a set of factors to  be included in the cognitive model, providing an assessment of the internal potential and taking into  account the dynamics of the external environment. </p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>промышленное предприятие</kwd><kwd>импортозамещение</kwd><kwd>когнитивная модель</kwd><kwd>прогнозирование</kwd><kwd>моделирование</kwd><kwd>факторы</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>industrial enterprise</kwd><kwd>import substitution</kwd><kwd>cognitive model</kwd><kwd>forecasting</kwd><kwd>modeling</kwd><kwd>factors</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Деловая активность российской промышленности в декабре 2022 года. Проблемы отрасли (по результатам конъюнктурных опросов). М.: НИУ ВШЭ, 2023. 11 с.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Business activity of the Russian industry in December 2022. 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