Cluster analysis of the global electricity production structure: a typology of energy systems and an assessment of Russia’s energy security vulnerabilities

Introduction. The comparative analysis of national energy systems in the context of the global energy transition requires a shift from traditional comparisons based on absolute production volumes to more sophisticated methodologies. Aggregated indicators, including per capita production, do not reflect the structural features of countries' energy balances, which hinders the identification of their real technological profile and position in the global energy architecture.

Purpose. To develop a methodology for the multidimensional clustering of countries based on the detailed structure of electricity production and to determine Russia's place in the emerging coordinate system, identifying its closest technological analogues.

Methods. Based on 2023 data from EIA, the Energy Institute, and BP for 210 countries worldwide, electricity production was decomposed into 10 components by source (gas, oil, coal, hydro, nuclear, wind, solar, geothermal, bioenergy, other renewables). Indicators were normalized per 100,000 population. Methods of standardization (z-score), dimensionality reduction (PCA), and hierarchical clustering were used.

Results. As a result of cluster analysis, four homogeneous groups of countries were identified: Purple cluster (144 countries): Dominance of natural gas (42%) and hydropower (25%). Russia is a member of this group. Red cluster (22 countries): Oil-dependent island states (75% oil). Orange cluster (13 countries): Coal-gas economies (44% coal, 20% gas). Includes China and Australia. Green cluster (31 countries): Diversified systems with a balance of nuclear (13%), renewable (21%), and traditional generation. Includes the USA, EU countries, and Japan. Russia ranks 9th within its cluster in terms of specific production (0.77 TWh/100,000 population).

Conclusions

1. A country's true position in the global energy landscape is determined not by absolute generation volumes, but by the structure of its energy balance, which shapes a unique technological and strategic profile.
2. Russia belongs to the largest yet least diversified "gas-hydro" cluster, indicating a high dependency on a limited set of sources and the associated risks to energy system resilience.
3. The fundamentally distinct positioning of the absolute leaders – China, the USA, and Russia – in separate clusters empirically confirms profound differences in their national energy strategies and development trajectories.
4. To align with global trends and strengthen its long-term energy security, Russia requires a systematic diversification of its energy balance, relying on the development of nuclear power and new renewable energy sources.

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