Theoretical aspects of land resources management in arid regions of Southern Russia using logical-probabilistic risk models

   Introduction. The ongoing land reform has radically changed the economic mechanism of land use and contributed to the formation of new mixed natural-anthropogenic ecosystems. The processes of ecosystem degradation and the persistently depressive nature of economic development in a number of regions in the South of Russia have determined the need to develop a method for assessing the impact of unfavorable conditions on the results of economic use of land resources, determining the probability and magnitude of losses in order to maintain effective land use for an unlimited period of time.

   Purpose. Development of a land management method based on the construction of LV risk models that allow assessing the probability and magnitude of losses in agricultural production in arid conditions, determining appropriate areas for reducing the negative impact of unfavorable factors to ensure expanded reproduction and more complete use of land resource potential.

   Materials and methods. In development of the works of leading scientists J. von Neumann, Nils Nilsson, I. Ryabinin, A. Mozhaev, E. Solozhentsev, an adapted approach to land management in arid regions of the South of Russia is proposed based on logical-probabilistic risk models. The choice of mathematical apparatus for land management in the South of Russia is substantiated, methods for constructing LV risk models, LV risk analysis of arid land deterioration, and LV management of the state and development of the land use system are described.

   Results and discussion. The proposed method used in land management takes into account risk groups that are most typical for arid ecosystems in the South of Russia and allows us to assess the contribution of various risks: decreased demand for agricultural products; reduction in the area of agricultural land; unfavorable weather and environmental conditions in reducing the results of financial and economic activities of agricultural producers.

   Conclusions. The risk analysis method is based on a logical and probabilistic approach that allows us to identify the main factors causing losses in agricultural output and determine the most appropriate measures to reduce the occurrence of unfavorable outcomes, predict the amount of losses, and justify the economic feasibility of projects to restore degraded pastures in arid regions of the South of Russia.

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