Scenarios for the development of the Union State of Russia and Belarus and their applied potential

   Introduction. In today's transforming world, one of the main tasks of the Russian Federation is to strengthen its role and status in the international system. To achieve this goal, the Russian Federation implements one of the priority components of its foreign policy, which is the development of integration entities with its participation. The key place for her in this process is occupied by the Union State of Russia and Belarus. Its priority role is determined by a significant normative and conceptual framework, as well as strong socio-cultural ties between the peoples of the Russian and Belarusian states.

   The purpose of the article is to build scenarios for the development of the Union State and determine the potential for their application.

   Materials and methods. The methodological basis of the work was the neofunctionalist integration approach. He determined the use of economic and political factors as a basis for constructing scenarios for the development of the Union State of Russia and Belarus, complemented by scientific, cultural, and a number of other components of Russian-Belarusian cooperation and its development. The key methods of work were the method of constructing scenarios based on the analysis of regulatory documents and cases of applied cooperation between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus. The empirical basis was made up of normative materials and information sources, which made it possible to provide a unique analysis of the components of the development of the SRS conducted by the researcher and to create author's scenarios based on empirical material, rather than generalizing previously written scientific sources.

   Results. As a result of the empirical research conducted by the author, an understanding was formed of the presence of three key scenarios among the potential options for the development of the Union State of Russia and Belarus: "negative", "positive" and "moderate", as well as the content of each based on the study of regulatory and informational materials, rather than other scientific publications.

   Conclusions. The result of the work is the identification of a "moderate" scenario as the most appropriate to the strategic documents currently in use, as well as the processes of Russian-Belarusian cooperation being implemented in practice. Its implementation should ensure the development of the Union State of Russia and Belarus, as well as enhance its status in the international arena and ensure the role of an influential subject of international relations.

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